Two soft spots for Obama campaign

Second choice votes were key to Barack Obama's victory in the Iowa primary, as the Chicago Sun Times noted, so Hillary Clinton's win over him in New Hampshire should not have been surprising. While the Iowa results showed that Obama has a smart and organized group of people working for him, it was not the conclusive win it was made out to be.

Now that Bill Richardson and Chris Dodd have dropped out of the race, Obama has a chance to once again claim those candidates' second-choice votes. But while rumors circulated (denied here) about Richardson sending second-choice votes to Obama, it remains an open question who Richardson or Dodd supporters will now move toward.

I think the Richardson folks will probably go to Clinton's camp, because both those candidates touted their experience in government.

Now, if John Edwards drops out, his supporters would probably split between Obama and Dennis Kucinich. Edwards has given Clinton such a hard time during the debates that it seems unlikely many of them could continue to hold a candle for Clinton.

But it seems even less conceivable that Edwards would drop out before Super Tuesday on Feb. 5, when a more conclusive victor will probably emerge.

After the Democratic party does choose I winner, I think Richardson has the best chance at being picked as a running mate, but more on that later.