Quid pro quo... or tit for tat

Slate's John Dickerson brings up an interesting question: How did Barack Obama win the support of former candidate Bill Richardson?

Dickerson suggests the two pols might have worked out a deal, where Obama gets the endorsement, while Richardson gets picked as the vice presidential nominee or wins a cabinet role if Obama is elected.

It's not hard to imagine Richardson as Obama's running mate.

The current governor of New Mexico's long resume would add experience to the Democratic ticket, and his Mexican heritage would help bring the Latino vote into the fold.

But, I think there may be other factors at play.

Maybe the governor felt miffed by Hillary Clinton's suggestion that Obama would make a fine vice presidential candidate, on her ticket.

After all, this winter, Clinton was making similar (and maybe more realistic back then) invitations to Richardson.

Of course, most people saw Clinton's suggestion that Obama take the VP slot as a ploy, rather than a genuine invitation.

But maybe Richardson felt passed over by the former front-runner, and wanted to let her know she can't have it both ways.

Or maybe after Clinton used the hypothetical VP pick to undermine Obama, the New Mexico governor looked back at her hints this December with a new set of glasses.

When compliments become condescending, the formerly flattered might feel miffed.

And this wonderfully written piece in the New York Times shows just how pissed the Clintons were about the endorsement - and that Richardson knew perfectly well how the former first lady would see it.

The ugly worm of race-baiting

This week, Barack Obama responded to anonymous rumors that could only be described as libelous because they appeal to an anti-Muslim bias, that has run rampant in this country.

I don't know which is sadder, that false allegations about a candidate's religion could turn voters away from him, or that a national newspaper would give validity to those rumors in a front-page story.

These rumors have reportedly circulated by e-mail since at least October.

Because these false allegations rely on religious bias in order to have a negative effect on the Illinois senator, they reflect badly on the country as a whole.

In somewhat related news, the MSNBC panel said they were taken aback by the way race was injected into the South Carolina race by former President Bill Clinton.

MSNBC played a clip where Clinton took a question about his questionable tactics and turned it around to talk about how another black presidential candidate had won South Carolina more than 20 years ago.

Two soft spots for Obama campaign

Second choice votes were key to Barack Obama's victory in the Iowa primary, as the Chicago Sun Times noted, so Hillary Clinton's win over him in New Hampshire should not have been surprising. While the Iowa results showed that Obama has a smart and organized group of people working for him, it was not the conclusive win it was made out to be.

Now that Bill Richardson and Chris Dodd have dropped out of the race, Obama has a chance to once again claim those candidates' second-choice votes. But while rumors circulated (denied here) about Richardson sending second-choice votes to Obama, it remains an open question who Richardson or Dodd supporters will now move toward.

I think the Richardson folks will probably go to Clinton's camp, because both those candidates touted their experience in government.

Now, if John Edwards drops out, his supporters would probably split between Obama and Dennis Kucinich. Edwards has given Clinton such a hard time during the debates that it seems unlikely many of them could continue to hold a candle for Clinton.

But it seems even less conceivable that Edwards would drop out before Super Tuesday on Feb. 5, when a more conclusive victor will probably emerge.

After the Democratic party does choose I winner, I think Richardson has the best chance at being picked as a running mate, but more on that later.

New Year's Predic -- Holy Shit!

I had started writing some New Year's predictions when I saw the latest Des Moines Register poll, putting Barack Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton by 7 percentage points, 32 to 25. John Edwards has caught up to the New York senator too.

So I had to throw out my prediction that Clinton wins the nomination and chooses Bill Richardson as running mate. Now it's all up in the air.

If Obama wins it, he will have pulled off something akin to the Red Sox come from behind victory over the Yankees in the 2004 ALCS.

The Sox went on to sweep the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series that year.

Watch, if Obama starts winning in Iowa and New Hampshire, he will build up a lot of momentum.

The poll also showed Mike Huckabee in the lead with 32 percent of the vote. Huckabee will probably win the Iowa caucuses, but who knows what might happen in New Hampshire, where John McCain and Mitt Romney are more viable candidates.